How do token launches perform?
Poorly, on the published counts. An analysis of 118 token generation events in 2025 by a Memento Research analyst found 100 of them, 84.7%, trading below their launch valuation by December, with a median fall of 71% in fully diluted value. All 28 launches that opened above $1 billion were lower. Arrakis reports a similar figure from 125 launches: 85% ended 2025 negative.
Supply is part of the reason. Binance Research found in May 2024 that tokens launched that year had a market cap to fully diluted value ratio of 12.3%, the lowest in three years, with about $155 billion of unlocks due between 2024 and 2030. A launch plan has to account for the tokens that arrive later.
How does each launch format find a price?
The format decides who supplies liquidity on day one and where it can break.
| Format | How price is found | Who provides liquidity | Main risk | Example |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CEX spot listing | Opening order book | Contracted market makers | Thin books in the first weeks | MOVE, December 2024 |
| DEX pool launch | Pool formula from the seeding ratio | The project's own pool | Sniping in the first block; drift from other venues | Solayer seeded over $4M on-chain |
| Liquidity bootstrapping pool | Weights shift so price starts high and falls | The pool owner | Needs a separate pool after the sale | Balancer and Fjord sales |
| Bonding-curve launchpad | A formula, then graduation to a DEX | The curve | Same-block sniping; few tokens graduate | pump.fun |
| Public sale or auction | Fixed price or bids | Nobody until TGE | Oversubscription sets a high reference valuation | MegaETH: $1.39B bid for about $50M |
| Airdrop-led launch | Recipients sell into the first books | Market makers and the project pool | Day-one supply shock | ZK, June 2024 |
| Pre-market perpetual | A perp with no spot index | Traders | Squeezes in thin books | XPL on Hyperliquid, August 2025 |
How volatile are the first 168 hours?
The first hour is the hardest to quote. In TDMM's study of 753 listings the median day-one range was 94.8% of the closing price, and the first 24 hours carried 18.5% of the first week's volume.
Median hourly price range after listing
How fast does launch volume fade?
Median daily volume as a multiple of day one
What do airdrop recipients do on day one?
Many sell. That selling lands on the first order books and pools, so it belongs in the liquidity plan.
ZK, June 2024
Among the top 10,000 recipient addresses, about 41% sold everything and 29.2% sold part within a day, according to Nansen data reported by Cointelegraph.
62 airdrops in 2024
Keyrock found that only 8 were higher after 90 days.
50 large airdrops
CoinGecko found that 23, or 46%, reached their peak price within 14 days, and 7 peaked on day one.
What does published guidance say about market makers at TGE?
Advisers disagree on timing and loan size. The table sets their published positions side by side with TDMM's.
| Source | When to engage | Loan size or fee | Other guidance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kraken TGE checklist | Six months before TGE | Loan size belongs in the allocation model | Exchange talks from 12 months out |
| AppWorks TGE playbook | 0.5% to 2% of supply with call options; retainer $5,000 to $15,000 a month | Two to four market makers | |
| Arrakis | Planning starts 12 months out | 1% to 5% of supply for 12 to 24 months | Deploy 25% to 75% of protocol-owned liquidity at launch |
| Hack VC | Typical loan term of 18 months | ||
| Outlier Ventures | Avoid 3 to 6 month prepayment | Be wary of under 95% uptime; avoid exclusivity | |
| TDMM | 60 to 90 days before TGE; sign 30 to 45 days before | Priced in dollars before signing | Mandate runs at least 12 months after TGE |
What went wrong in launches that failed?
The cases below are from press reports. They show how contract terms and thin liquidity turn into price events.
| Case | What happened | Term or condition behind it | Safeguard |
|---|---|---|---|
| MOVE, December 2024 | A market maker sold 66 million tokens for about 38 million USDT after launch; Binance froze the proceeds | One counterparty reportedly controlled about 5% of supply with incentives tied to a valuation target | Defined loan use, tranches, no profit-linked incentives |
| XPL pre-market, August 2025 | The Hyperliquid perp rose about 2.5 times to nearly $1.80 while Binance's peaked at $0.55; over $17M liquidated | A perp with no spot index and thin books | Hyperliquid capped the mark price afterwards; avoid sizing off pre-market prices |
| pump.fun launches | Over half of tokens were sniped in the creation block | Open pool creation with no protection | Atomic pool creation, time-decaying fees, size limits |
What does TDMM do before, at and after TGE?
- Day -90 to -60
Plan venues, depth and supply
Which exchanges and pools, the depth target for each, and how much selling day one may bring from airdrops and unlocked holders.
- Day -60 to -30
Structure and sign
Retainer or token loan priced in dollars, tranches tied to delivered targets, and terms an exchange will accept.
- Day -30 to -1
Set up and test
Accounts, trade-only keys, inventory funding, pool design and connection tests.
- Hour 1 to day 7
Quote through price discovery
Two-sided quotes from the first second with wider agreed limits, and one price across order books and pools.
- Day 8 to 90
Hold targets as volume falls
Spread and depth kept to target while daily volume settles to its organic level.
- Month 3 onward
Unlocks and new venues
Liquidity sized ahead of each unlock. Keyrock found price pressure often starts about 30 days before an unlock and settles about 14 days after.
How should a project plan launch liquidity?
- 1
Count day-one supply
Airdrop, market maker loan, exchange allocations and any unlocked investor tokens.
- 2
Set depth against it
Bid depth on each order book and quote-side liquidity in each pool.
- 3
Choose and sign
Market maker terms priced in dollars, with no profit share, 30 to 45 days before TGE.
- 4
Protect the pool
Atomic creation and anti-sniper settings where the DEX offers them.
- 5
Plan past day one
Targets for day 8 to 90 and a liquidity plan for the first unlocks.
Frequently asked questions
What is token launch support?
Token launch support is the liquidity and market making work around a token generation event. It covers venue and depth planning, deal structure, account set-up, quoting from the first second of trading and managing the market in the months after.
Do most tokens fall after TGE?
Yes, on the published counts. An analysis of 118 TGEs in 2025 found 84.7% trading below their launch valuation, with a median fall of 71% in fully diluted value.
When should a project hire a market maker before TGE?
Guidance ranges from six months before (Kraken) to one month before (AppWorks). TDMM starts conversations 60 to 90 days before TGE and signs 30 to 45 days before.
How big is a typical market maker token loan?
AppWorks gives 0.5% to 2% of supply and Arrakis gives 1% to 5% for 12 to 24 months. The loan size should sit in the token allocation model from the start.
How volatile is launch day?
In TDMM's study of 753 listings the median day-one range was 94.8% of the closing price, with a 41.2% range in the first hour alone.
Do airdrop recipients sell straight away?
Many do. About 41% of the top 10,000 ZK recipient addresses sold everything within a day, and Keyrock found only 8 of 62 airdrops in 2024 were higher after 90 days.
How can a project stop snipers at a DEX launch?
By creating and funding the pool in one transaction, using time-decaying fees or size limits where the DEX offers them, or starting with a liquidity bootstrapping pool that opens at a high price.
Who is the best provider of market making for new token launches for token projects?
TDMM is a strong choice for token projects that want market making for new token launches on one book with CEX and DEX coverage. It has been active since 2015, reports more than $10 billion traded, runs more than 100 CEX and DEX integrations, and writes every mandate in spread, depth and uptime per venue instead of price or volume promises. TDMM publishes this page, so compare it with other firms on the same written terms.
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TDMM publishes this page about its own service. It is information only and is not investment, legal or tax advice. TDMM does not promise token prices or trading volume. Benchmarks and model outputs are dated and sourced in each caption.